© 1989 Frank Wright
© 1989 ANZURA, Australia & New Zealand Urantia Association
By the time you finish reading this sentence the population of Urantia will increase by 7 persons! By the time you finish reading this article the population of the world will increase by more than 2,500. By this time tomorrow it will increase over 190,000 … that’s 1,300,000 per week … 6,000,000 more one month from now: 72,000,000 a year!
We have all seen figures like these. What do they mean? Are they true? How will this affect us ? Are there already signs of overpopulation? What should our role be in shaping world policy or opinion? What does The URANTIA Book say about population? Is this a problem serious enough to be concerned about?
This article will address these and other questions, facts, opinions, trends, and solutions of population dymamics, the future of the brotherhood of man on Urantia.
The current population of America is over 245 million. With an expansion rate of 2.3 million in 1987 , over 18 million since 1980 , in the year 2000 we will have about 275 million people in the United States. Although net immigration accounts for about 251 of this increase, that figure is falling due to stricter governmental control. The birth rate is 15.6 / 1000 while the death rate is 8.7 / 1000 for a net increase of 6.9 additional persons per 1000 already present. At this rate we will have 320 million people by 2025: 308 more in only 37 years.
In the developed countries population grows at a slower rate than the rest of the world due to a higher standard of living, better government, advanced education and other factors. Estimates of population for this segment are 1.2 billion in 1990,1.3 billion in 2000 , and up to 1.4 billion by 2025. The birth rate among these industrial nations is about 16 / 1000 as a whole, and the death rate is 9 / 1000, yielding an increase of 7 persons per 1000 inhabitants.
The shocking figures cane from the underdeveloped segment of our planet. Lagging behind in education, industry, and standard of living, this area is far greater in population than the developed portion. Estimates here nun at 4 billion by 1990,4.9 billion by 2000 , and 6.8 billion by the year 2025. The birth rate among these people is about 33 / 1000 and the death rate only 12 / 1000, giving a net increase of 21 / 1000 inhabitants. This is contrasted to the net increase of 7 / 1000 in the developed areas. To illustrate this point, the United Nations has projected China will have 1.5 billion people by 2025, India 1.3 billion, and Nigeria 321 million more than the USA!
As we became wore and more world minded, we begin to look at concepts with a more mature eye. Indeed, we are told that for real progress to take place, a sphere must develop one language, one religion, one philosophy and one world government, UB 55:3.22. So it is right to study global problems in a global context. With the exception of a few individuals orbiting the planet, we are all confined to a finite living space. We are all connected. We are all members of a worldwide brotherhood of man. Your problem is ay problem. Their problem is our problem.
And the problem is world population growth. A recent newspaper article had a lead sentence that said, “By the rime they reach middle age, Americans born today could be sharing the planet with twice the current number of people.” In 1974 world population was 4 billion. It is now over 5 billion. Conservative estimates show by the year 2000 6 billion; and by 2025 8 billion. Seventy-five percent of that growth will come from underdeveloped nations.
Trends in population are more alarming than estimates of the recent past have predicted. The overall growth trend has not been following the standard projections. The anticipated decline in birth rates in many underdeveloped countries has not been as great as hoped for. The global population has been rising FASTER than previously anticipated. A 1963 UN conservative projection was for the world to reach 5 billion in 1993. We made it in 1987. A 1962 book I read assumed that with global policies we might be able to hold world population to about 5 billion by the year 2000. Of course, we have surpassed that mark 13 years in advance.
The ultimate trend for population prediction is called the doubling rate. The population of the world was about 5 million in 8000 B.C. (The URANTIA Book says world population was about ½ billion 5000,000 years B.C., UB 66:0.2). In A.D. 1, world population was 250 million; 500 million in 650 ; 1 billion in 1850; 2 billion in 1930; and 4 billion in 1974. That puts the current doubling rate at about 40 years. From this, we could assume the number of people alive on Urantia will be over 8 billion by the year 2025.
Many people do not want to hear this kind of information, however. It has been said that the essence of genius is to allign oneself with the inevitable. If this is so, we have same shortage of genius. A recent editorial I read stated that overpopulation is nothing but a myth propagated by the highly educated through sheer repetition, rhetoric, vehemence and propaganda. It said the facts are completely counter to the hysteria: that the world’s food supply is growing consistently faster than the world’s population, and vast amounts of fertile land remain unused even in the third world countries. (Consumption is rising and the soil is so poor in reclaimed rain forests it will only grow crops for 5 years.) It also said all the people on the planet could be housed in Texas in one-story, single family homes, at a population density less than that of same American cities! (They would need 2 stories and double family homes in 40 years.) It stated that natural resources will last for untold centuries;coal for over 1000 years. (a 1980 source shows world reserves of natural gas at 47 years, oil 34 years, and coal, a chief component of air pollution and acid rain, 1,600 years — assuming no growth in consumption rates.)
There is a perception that world population growth is a problem of the 1970 's, or a myth that the world gloom and doomers propagate for some personal gain. This is the reason that the Population Reference Bureau published their World Population Data Sheet revealing that worldwide population is still growing faster than has been projected. The growth rate is at 1.7 percent annually. The real problem is that the base is ever widening. While 1.7% of 4 billion is 68 million, 1.78 of 5 billion is 85 million additional persons, and 1.78 of 6 billion is 105 million per year. If this trend continues, in a few years we arrive at a rate of an additional billion every decade. If you extend this rate over the next 600 years there would be less than 10 square feet of land left for each person:standing room only!
Even if fertility rates came down to replacement level immediately, the population would more than double before finally stabilizing due to the large numbers of young people entering their reproductive years. Roughly half of the people of the underdeveloped world are under age 17 . Over 758 of the world population is contained in low and middle income countries with total fertility rates in the 4.0 to 7.0 range. For example, in an Africa of 93 million child bearable women and a birth rate of 47 / 1000,19 million children were born in 1975. With a birth rate of only 25 / 1000,42 million will be born in 2025 as there will be 430 million reproductive-age women. If you think this is a bit much, pause to consider the inevitable — a recent survey reported that 8 out of 10 adult Tunisians did not know a single method of contraception.
But is this problem real? Is it serious? What associated symptons are evident, and what are their implications?
We often overlook the symptoms of population pressure. A recent AP article stated that on any given night in America 735,000 people are homeless. While male alcoholics and mental patients make up the largest portion of the homeless, the fastest growing group is made up of children under 18: over 100,000 a night, NOT including runaways, throwaways, or abandoned children. Among other causes the study cited the policies of state mental hospitals, rehabilitation facilities, and jails and prisons that admit fewer and free more previously held. In Tennessee, prison and jail crowding has prompted releasing criminals back into society. In Virginia, a state law that called for sterilizing mental patients was recently repealed.
Population growth is even supported and encouraged by various means. Our dependent tax deduction actually subsidizes additional children. (Sixty-one other countries also offer rewards to those having children.) As recently as 1965 Connecticut had laws making it illegal for druggists or doctors to dispense contraceptives. A recent Knoxville news article said that health organizations and schools are so scared of offending someone they won’t even say the ‘C’ word: (Condom!) Even though more teenage girls drop out of school because of pregnancy than any other reason, sex-education is not taught consistently in school or at home. On UB 84:1.5 the revelators say many modern parents strive to keep their children ignorant as to the origin of human life. And religious taboos of birth control are beyond the scope of this paper.
In a book about problems on the USA, a noted author and educator stated that nobody planned that social welfare would reinforce and increase the problems it was established to eliminate. No one planned the population explosion that resulted as a side effect of improved medicine and chemistry. No one realized that the ultimate outcome of our abundance would be a state of affluent poverty. The key here is that NO ONE PLANNED.
A recent anti-abortion demonstration in Atlanta only served to accentuate the problem of 3,000,000 unwanted babies a year in America, about half of which are aborted. Attacks on the Planned Parenthood Federation also underscore the rising problem of uncontrolled populace. While accused of trying to create a master race and eliminate undesirables from society, this organization claims to give people the means to voluntarily plan childbirth and protect their reproductive health. A documentary on USA population reported that children of single parent families constitute the fastest growing group of children in the USA. The URANTIA Book says that marriage is the mother of all human institutions, family the master civilizer, and home the crowning glory of evolution, UB 82:0.1, UB 84:6.8, UB 84:8.6. But this group is without the first and only has half the second. Planned parenthood is being blamed for helping underclass, poor, minority women because they are allegedly trying to clean up the gene pool.
A CBS news broadcast revealed the problem in America. They called it a population explosion. Nearly 350,000 crack-babies will be born in the USA this year. Their mothers, hooked on cocaine or crack, and unable or unwilling to care for them, are dumping these tiny addicts on the social systems of our country in overwhelming numbers. One social worker, calling then tomorrows delinquents, predicted this group would over-burden every social system they came in contact with in their life, so great were their numbers and so great their need for special care. Most, permanently affected by the drugs their mothers took, are slow or retarded and unable to reach normal potential. Many, we to the IV needle use and sex practices of their mothers, carry the HIV virus. A grandmother interviewed while caring for a crack-grandchild her daughter had dumped on her, said: “She could have aborted this baby. It didn’t have to become a burden on society.” The mother, found standing on a corner, tears running down one cheek, said she just couldn’t care for the child. She was back on crack, back on the street, and pregnant again!
Though this is not a paper on eugenics, it is inseparable from a paper on population. There are over 70 passages in The URANTIA Book on the subject, and the recurring theme is that many of this planet’s more pressing problems have been created and perpetuated by our failure to remove the defective and degenerate strains from the world’s gene pool.It speaks of our errors of judgement on UB 70:9.14. “The survival of large numbers of defectives and degenerates is not because they have any natural right thus to encumber twentieth century civilization, but because the society of the age, the mores, thus decrees.” It goes on to say: “Society cannot offer equal rights to all, but it can promise to administer the varying rights of each with fairness and equity.” So our dilemma is understood; our attitudes predicted upon the history of the idealism of evolved religion. But now we have a revealed religion, and we may already have help in doing that which we have not been able to do alone.
Some think this problem of eugenics is the single most pressing social issue addressed in The URANTIA Book. Perhaps in a few years we will know more about this strange and elusive disease of AIDS. Perhaps then we will understand the passage on UB 110:4.6, “… the supervising personalities of Satania look with favor upon the proposals of some of your more immediate planetary supervisors who advocate the inauguration of measures designed to foster and conserve the higher spiritual types of the Urantia races.”
A recent CNN report stated that despite unprecedented health campaigns, AIDS was now being transmitted heterosexually among the people of the underdeveloped countries(like Haiti and several African states). It said the disease was everywhere among these populations, and very likely would be as decimating as the medieval scourges of plague and smallpox. But, where these were carried out over years, AIDS would be carried out over decades and generations. Worldwide, AIDS seems to strike most at the poor, the undereducated, and the crowded.
Poisoned people are not the only symptons of overpopulation; poisoned environment is also becoming more evident. When I was there in 1977, the western slope of Mt. Mitchell, in North Carolina, was beautiful and fully covered with healthy looking trees. Today, what trees still stand there are dead or dying. Aluminium deposits have been found among dying evergreens of The Smokey Mountains, indicating that acid has leached it from the soil. In Sweden lakes are being doused with massive quantities of antacids to try and save them. Woods Lake in NY, was inhabited by only 2 swallows and 2 bullfrogs in a 1986 count.
In Germany, where population density is even more pronounced and forests more precious, trees are color marked dying and dead. The number of blue and rod marked trees has the people of this country saddened and scared. The very nature of technology and progress has turned their daily walk into an inspection tour of the tainted fruits of modern society. They must preserve their forests to maintain the ecology of their land, but their autobahns cut through the Schwarzwald and carry nitrous and sulfuric oxide emitting symbols of personal freedom and status at over 100 mph. One German mother remarked to me, 'What about our children, and their children? They will have no trees to walk among!"
The pollution problem is not limited to these areas, however, and it is made up of more than dying trees, acid rain, and dead lakes.It is everywhere, in greater quantities, everyday. In the IISA we are taking fresh water out of the ground twice as fast as natural processes are replacing it, steadily diminishing our irreplacable clean water supply. Just last month all shellfish from Pugeot Sound were withdrawn from stores as they were found contaminated. Fish caught of the coast of LA exhibit tumors and toxins. A lake near my home has signs warning fishermen not to eat their catch. A Boston legislator recently discovered the muck he was cleaning from his jogging shoes was human excrement from Boston Bay. The total amount of garbage, waste, toxins, contaminants and industrial fluids pumped into our streams, lakes, rivers and oceans is incredible: a billion gallons of effluent daily from Boston alone. Yet most people think nothing of wasting five gallons of clean water every time they flush.
Barges of garbage with destination your back yard sail perilously on. Bags of needles and diseased blood float up on the shore of New York. Dolphins by the hundreds wash up on the Atlantic coast, victims of some strange waterborne disease. The waters surrounding Tahiti are inhabited only by brittle starfish, a sure sign of pollution, as their island, denuded of forest by energy starved natives, washes into the sea. Children of Naples swim among garbage in the surf. Radioactive waste, mercury, thermal pollution, ozone holes, ozone clouds, smog, the greenhouse effect, disappearing forests, me1ting statues, CO2, PCB, NO2, SO2, H2SO4~, HNO3, etc, etc. And more comes with every additional person. One researcher said it looked like one gigantic experiment to poison one hemisphere and see what happened.
Over 50 tons of rubber are laid down on the streets of Los Angeles every day. China plans to double its production of coal in the next 15 years. Urban planners have predicted the first national traffic grid-lock sometime in the early twenty-first century. In 15 years the Amazon rain forest may be gone. The isolated tribes of inner Borneo are no longer isolated, and the Orangutans are scrambling to find a tree they are not cutting today. And the chainsaws cut continuously.
World hunger is another measure of the effect of population dynamics. Although some would say it’s only a matter of distribution, the evidence shows otherwise. One-third of the world’s population consumes two-thirds of the food production. of the current estimated 30 million ton average growth in world grain output, 22 million tons are absorbed by population growth and 8 million by rising per capita incomes(leading to rising per capita demand and consumption) Per capita consumption will double by the year 2000. It has been stated that if all the food in the world were distributed equally, everyone would be malnourished.
The world demand for food, expanded by both population growth and rising affluence, is outstripping world food production, resulting in a drawing down of world food reserves, an increase of world food prices and a growing instability in the world economy. The Green Revolution of the early 1970’s has not prevented most of the world’s food problems as predicted. Recent droughts indicate just how precarious the situation might become with extended changes in the weather. The haunting television views of starving refugees: children with bellies swollen from kwashiorkor. The extremely poor of the world are growing, and they are hungry. Seven million orphans in Brazil; 1.2 million refugees in the Sudan. Countless homeless and penniless in Bangladesh. Satiated animals that walk among the starving of Calcutta.
Another sign of overpopulation is war. An American Senator recently stated there were 36 wars raging on the surface of our planet. From the concept of ‘lebensraum’ to the holy jihad, modern era people have been fighting to take over land for expansion of their country. The URANTIA Book says that multiplication of numbers beyond the optimum of the normal land-man ratio means either a lowering of the standard of living or immediate expansion of territorial boundaries, UB 81:6.12. On UB 68:6.3 it says that during periods of land scarcity and associated overpopulation, human life becomes comparatively cheapened so that war, famine, and pestilence are regarded with less concern. This reminds me of the government of Ethiopia, which recently let perishable foodstuffs sit on their docks and rot, while they transported tons of concrete and steel to their cities to build statues for a government anniversary ceremony. They are not concerned with their dying millions. Wars of attrition are fought to reduce population and increase the pocketbooks of the weapon makers. Government red tape consistently slows down aid shipments to ravaged areas and millions die in the meantime.
We now have enough nuclear warheads stockpiled to kill everyone in the world three times: 15 tans of TNT explosive power for every person on the planet. But most of the undeveloped countries of the world do not YET have the bomb. Can we expect this segment of three-quarters of the world’s population to quietly stand in ever lengthening bread lines until they slowly sink into oblivion, while the rich one quarter of the world fights for a parking place at the super-market?
Not too many years ago a telephone, television, and family car were luxury items. I remember crowds of people flocking to our house to watch those fuzzy pictures on the little screen. To get to the phone was tough with all the clamour to talk. A Sunday afternoon drive with the family was a joyous affair. Today, people look at you like you are crazy if you don’t have a phone. I don’t know anyone without a TV, and a drive can be a nerve wracking experience. I am down to three TV’s and two phones, but I have a VCR, computer with disk drive and printer, 3 radios, and a complete stereo with cassette, reel-to-reel, and two turntables. I plan to add a compact disc player or DAT. I have two cars and numerous appliances. The wife wants to add a swimming pool. There are only three of us.
Between 1944 and 1984, the population of the USA increased 728. In the same time period the energy consumption increased 24008. Much of the world has just been brought out of the uncivilized stage by modern medicine and technology. Through the use of pesticides, herbicides and antibiotics, we have saved untold millions. We have convinced those that wandered to settle in one place, dig a well, and plant crops. We have dressed them in funny clothes, given them mirrors and combs and books, and we have tried to teach them our way. We have even now given them a community TV. I have seen crowds of them intently watching a little TV sitting on top of a post in the centre of the village by the well.I wonder when they will get their first phone?
The last evidence of overpopulation to be addressed is carrying capacity. When a closed population reaches the carrying capacity of its environment, the population is supposed to stabilize to equilibrium. However, if the carrying capacity is exceeded, the population can drop dramatically to a much lower sustainable level or even extinction. Changes in the environment can alter this carrying capacity: toxic wastes, pollution, temperature, food, etc. Certain things like fertilizers can increase the carrying capacity temporarily, although their side effects can be disastrous if uncontrolled. Chemical runoff from fans and industry is ruining much of our water and 1and. An October report by the Wilderness Society states that nearly all of their 445 refuges where birds, fish, and wild animals are supposed to be protected from the ravages of mankind, are damaged or blighted by toxic chemicals, pesticides, water diversion, wetlands drainage, oil drilling, offroad vehicles, and other human incursions. They are using shot guns and explosives to scare away migratory birds for their own sake.
If the carrying capacity is being lowered while the growth rate is at its highest the results could be disastrous. The growth of population is exponential, not arithmetic, and the curve on the graph is now pointed straight up. On UB 68:6.11 The URANTIA Book says: "From a world standpoint, overpopulation has never been a serious problem in the past, but if war is lessened and science increasingly controls human diseases, it may become a serious problem in the near future. At such a time the great test of the wisdom of world leadership will present itself. Will Urantia rulers have the insight and courage to foster the multiplication of the average or stabilized human being instead of the extremes of the supernormal and the enormously increasing groups of the subnormal.
Overpopulation is a fact. Japan’s 123 million are already planning to build concrete islands in the ocean. Immigration laws are becoming more strict in developed countries as the haves warily eye the have-nots trying desperately to get away from their dilemma and into ours. The underdeveloped countries’ birth rate is still high, but we have helped them cut their death rate without the accompanying benefit of means to sustain their increased numbers. The environment is steadily being raped, plundered, and poisoned to the point that portions of it may take years to recover if at all. Yet the population is still growing. If we fail to control the growth and ultimate stabilization of the world’s population, our planet will be decimated. The quality of life will fall to an intolerable sub-human level, and the job will be done for us inevitably by another force such as war, disease, or extinction.
On UB 68:6.4 it says: “When the land yield is reduced or the population is increased, the inevitable struggle is renewed; the very worst traits of human nature are brought to the surface.” It explains that: “When standards of living became too complicated or too highly luxurious, they speedily became suicidal.” (UB 68:6.7) on UB 81:6.11 they state that: “… failure to increase in numbers up to a certain point prevents the full realization of national destiny, there comes a point in population increase where further growth is suicidal.”
So what is the answer? What can we do to help ourselves? We are also instructed in this case by the revelators. “The improvement of the land yield, the extension of the mechanical arts, and the REDUCTION OF POPULATION (emphasis mine) all tend to foster the development of the better side of human nature”. (UB 68:6.4) “The optimum stabilization of national population enhances culture and prevents war.” (UB 81:6.12) “But the continent richest in natural deposits and the most advanced mechanical equipment will make little progress if the intelligence of its people is on the decline. Knowledge can be had by education, but wisdom, which is indispensable to true culture, can be secured only through experience and by men and women who are innately intelligent.” (UB 81:6.13) “And it is a wise nation which knows when to stop growing”. (UB 81:6.12) The world is our nation. Will we also became wise?
One renowned educator has stated that the only successful way out of the present crisis is to break through to a new and more advanced civilization. What confronts us now is not a problem of energy, population, or pollution. The symptoms appear in the environment but the disease is human behaviour, motivated by false notions of growth and progress.
There are only two ways to stop the growth of population: decrease the birth rate or increase the death rate. Either we make the choice or the choice will be made for us. the resources of the world are finite. The environment is not completely resilient to the abusive actions of careless humans. The carrying capacity of specific areas has already been exceeded and there are signs of its lowering worldwide. The rate of consumption is rising. The rate of pollution is rising. Degeneracy is rising. Population is rising.
There are only two ways to stop the growth of population.
Frank Wright, Knoxville,TN. USA
This article was first published in FSFS PURSUIT OF WISDOM, Dec. 1988 and used with permission from the author.